ENFOLD: Explaining, modelliNg, and FOrecasting gLobal Dynamics

ENFOLD: Explaining, modelliNg, and FOrecasting gLobal Dynamics

Pablo Mateos participates in a successful CASA-led £2.9 million bid to EPSRC involving seven UCL departments and ten academics.

ENFOLD is a multidisplinary five year modelling project funded by EPSRC (£2.9 million FEC) spanning across seven UCL departments. It will develop new forms of complexity science which address the most difficult of human problems: those that involve global change where there is no organised constituency and whose agencies are largely regarded as being ineffective. ENFOLD will argue that global systems tend to be treated in isolation from one another and that the unexpected dynamics that characterises their behaviour is due to their coupling and integration that is all too often ignored. To demonstrate these dynamics and to develop appropriate policy responses, it will study four related global systems: trade, migration, security and development aid. It will develop integrated and coupled models whose dynamics can be described in the not so conventional language of complexity theory: chaos, turbulence, bifurcations, catastrophes, and phase transition. The programme will apply spatial interaction models to trade and migration, reaction diffusion to conflicts and terrorism, and network models to international trade, migration and crime. These models will be extended to incorporate the generation of qualitative new events such as the emergence of new entities e.g. countries, coupling them together in diverse ways. We will ultimately develop a generic framework for a coupled global dynamics that spans many spatial and temporal scales and pertains to different systems whose behaviours can be simulated both quantitatively and qualitatively. Various models will be developed which incorporate all these ideas into a global intelligence system to inform global policy makers about future events. Several UK government departments as well as global businesses are partners in this project.

The project is led by Sir Alan Wilson at CASA. Dr. Pablo Mateos is one of the co-investigators and will lead the migration strand of the project, based at the Migration Research Unit. Professor John Salt will be an adviser to the project.

  • Professor Sir Alan Wilson FBA, FRS (CASA), PI
  • Professor Mike Batty CBE, FBA, FRS (CASA)
  • Professor Frank Smith FRS (Mathematics)
  • Professor Stephen Bishop (Mathematics)
  • Dr Francesca Medda (Transport Studies)
  • Dr Pablo Mateos (Geography)
  • Dr Alex Braithwaite (Political Science)
  • Dr Alastair Turner (Political Science)
  • Dr Shane Johnson (Jill Dando Institute)
  • Dr Sean Hanna (Bartlett School)

More details

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New UCL collaboration with Mexico National University (UNAM)

Social Segregation in Latin American cities

A research collaboration in urban and population geography has recently being set up between Dr. Pablo Mateos (UCL) and Dr. Adrian Guillermo Aguilar, at the Mexico National University (UNAM), one of the the most prestigious university in Latin America and the Spanish-speaking world. The aim is to develop further studies of study socioeconomic segregation in Latin American cities.

Following earlier contacts, Pablo visited UNAM’s Institute of Geography in Mexico City for a week in April 2009, where he gave a seminar on ‘Spatial Analysis, Geodemographics and Residential Segregation’, showcasing various UCL research projects and introducing the collaboration with UNAM. He also initiated the research project by analysing Census data for Mexico City at very small area level. His visit was partly funded by UNAM’s international collaboration funds.

Adrian Guillermo will visit UCL for a month in May 2009, where he will be working with Pablo Mateos, various members of CASA, Dr Ann Varley and other human geographers in the department. He will give a departmental seminar on his work in Mexico City and the research project with UCL. His visit is funded by a Spatial Literacy in Teaching (SPLINT) Fellowship. (See: http://www.spatial-literacy.org/)

This collaboration will establish opportunities for the dissemination of UCL and UNAM’s research in urban and population geography, including publications. Medium-term funding will also be sought to carry out a broader three year research project.

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New RGS-IBG Population Geography website launched

New RGS-IBG Population Geography website launched

The Population Geography Research Group (PGRG) of the Royal Geographical Society (with Institute of British Geographers), has launched a new website – designed and hosted by UCL, at www.popgeog.org

The site features the main activities of PGRG (including conferences and workshops), and information relevant to researchers and practitioners in population geography, including new developments, conference reports, jobs, funding opportunities, journal content alerts, and forthcoming meetings. It follows a ‘blog post’ method which is more dynamic, and easier to update and read, than a traditional static website. As well as a conventional hierarchical menu, the content can be accessed through a keyword “tag cloud”, displaying tag frequencies, or a search menu for specific terms. An RSS feed is also available to automatically notify users of new posts, or feed this information to other websites.

The aim of the new PGRG website is to become the main repository of key information for population geographers in the UK and beyond. Please disseminate this URL as widely as possible among academics, students, and practitioners. Material for posting on the website should be sent to Pablo Mateos (p.mateos@ucl.ac.uk), Communications Officer, PGRG

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Locating the Latino community in Britain

Locating the Iberian-American community in Britain

Dr Pablo Mateos gave a seminar on October 7th, at the Bolivar Hall of the Venezuelan Consulate, organised by the Alianza Iberoamericana. He presented a first attempt to measure the size and geographical distribution of the Latin or Iberian-American community in the UK  (i.e. those with ancestry in Latin America, Spain, Portugal, and Portuguese speaking Africa), using conventional as well alternative statistical sources. Dr Cathy McIlwaine, Reader in Geography at Queen Mary UL, also presented evidence for the size of the Latin American community and its social characteristics, based on a large scale survey.

There is little research on Latin Americans or Iberian-Americans living in London or the UK. Most looks at specific national communities within the Ibero-American diaspora, repeatedly noting its low visibility in national and local politics, and the dearth of knowledge about alleged structural disadvantage and discrimination. One of the first steps towards increasing visibility is to establish reliable figures about the scale and distribution of the communities and the demographic characteristics of the places where they live.

Pablo’s talk presented statistics derived from official sources: The Census of Population, Labour Force Survey, Home Office Border Agency statistics, International Passenger Survey, and National Insurance Number Applications.

He has also mapped the geographical distribution in London of people with Spanish or Portuguese origin names, as registered in the electoral roll. The areas of higher concentration coincide with those found in several studies based on the languages that London pupils speak at home.

Download Pablo’s presentation at: http://popgeog.org/files/2009/11/P_Mateos_Bolivar-Hall_IberoAmericans-in-UK.pdf

Cathy McIlwaine: http://www.geog.qmul.ac.uk/staff/mcilwainec.html

Names-to-ethnicity research

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Personal webpage launched

This is my first post, let’s give it a try

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